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Democrats Flip Another Statehouse Seat

Canada Goose Outlet Last night, Democrats successfully flipped another state legislature seat, this time in Wisconsin. This was a pretty stunning canada goose womens outlet upset, and one that bodes well for Democratic canada goose discount uk chances this November in the congressional midterm elections. Their continuing string canada goose outlet vancouver of victories in special elections just adds fuel to the speculation that this year will see a rather large Democratic «wave election» cycle. There are, of course, no guarantees, canada goose outlet 80 off but so far things continue to look very good for Democratic candidates. Canada Goose Outlet

canadian goose jacket In Wisconsin, chief medical examiner for St. Croix County Patty Schachtner easily beat state representative Adam Jarchow by 11 points in the preliminary results, winning by a margin of 55 to 44 percent of the special election vote to fill a state senate canada goose outlet in montreal seat in a rural district of the state. canadian goose jacket

Canada Goose Jackets As in other special elections across the country over the past year, the Democrat outperformed historical voting trends in the district to an astonishing degree. In 2016, the Republican candidate won with 63 percent of the vote. Donald Trump did almost as well, garnering 59 percent of the vote to win by 17 points. Mitt Romney won the district in 2012, and John McCain came close to winning canada goose outlet canada goose jacket outlet uk it in 2008 canada goose outlet locations in toronto even while the rest of the state went for Barack Obama. Canada Goose Jackets

buy canada goose jacket Comparing Tuesday’s special election result with Trump’s victory shows a whopping 28 point swing in party preference. Of course, to more accurately understand this number requires halving it, since margins of victories really count the same voters canada goose parka outlet twice. If a district votes 52 48 for a Republican in one election (a 4 point margin) and then 44 56 for the Democrat in the next (a 12 point margin in the other direction), it is more accurate to say «8 percent of voters changed from voting Republican to voting for the Democrat» rather than to say «it was a 16 point swing.» But even after splitting this particular hair, canada goose outlet seattle Democrats outperformed buy canada goose uk their previous showing in Wisconsin by flipping 14 percent of the vote. That is incredibly impressive, especially given canada goose outlet factory the rural nature of the district. buy canada goose jacket

canada goose clearance sale This is entirely canada goose coats uk in sync with national generic polling, where the question is asked: «If the midterm elections were held tomorrow, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?» Democrats have been holding on to a double digit lead in such polling for months now. What this means is that Republicans (especially in the House) who won their district by fewer than 10 points should be very worried about their chances in November. And there are a lot of these districts enough to hand control of the canada goose factory outlet toronto location House back to the Democrats. canada goose clearance sale

canada goose black friday sale Even with such a rosy outlook, the Democratic Party still has a long way to go in the statehouses across the country. During Barack Obama’s time in office, Democrats lost (depending on which stats you credit) anywhere from 900 to 1,000 such statehouse seats to Republicans. https://www.gooseyou.com So far, with all the elections held over the past canada goose outlet montreal year, Democrats have picked up an impressive 34 seats. However, this means they still have either 866 or 966 such victories to go to return to where they were in 2008. So there’s a canada goose outlet niagara falls lot of work still to be done, obviously, when you put things in perspective. canada goose black friday sale

canada goose State legislative races seldom get much attention, of course. Even special elections held when nothing much else is going on don’t get much media coverage outside of the affected district or state. But this year, pundits are looking to read whatever tea leaves are canada goose outlet uk fake available in order to prognosticate what could happen in the midterms. canada goose

Canada Goose sale The next such election that canada goose victoria parka outlet will command a lot of media attention will be a special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th House district. The district in question, in the southwestern part of the state, is pretty solid Trump country. But then so was the district in Wisconsin. Trump won PA 18 by 19 points in 2016. That’s comparable to his 17 point margin in Wisconsin. Normally, a president wouldn’t care much about one House special election, especially in a district with such a canada goose outlet los angeles heavy lean towards his own canada goose outlet uk party. But Trump is planning another full court press for the campaign (the election will be held in mid March). No word yet on whether Trump will personally campaign in the district, but canada goose outlet in canada the White House is already planning for Mike Pence to visit twice, as well as «half a dozen cabinet secretaries.» So they’re obviously invested in the outcome. Canada Goose sale

canada goose deals To be scrupulously fair, so canada goose outlet store calgary far the Trump team has eked out victories in many of these House canada goose outlet woodbury special elections, denying Democrats the opportunity to flip House districts after the president appoints whoever represents them to an executive position. But this is a feature canada goose outlet winnipeg address of the presidential appointment process, as the relative safety of the district is a key factor when making decisions about who to appoint. In several House special elections, Democrats have come very close to flipping Republican seats outperforming their previous history in the district by wide margins. But they’ve mostly fallen short in the end. The White House is obviously hoping this will also be the case in Pennsylvania. canada goose deals

Canada Goose online But even if Republicans do prevail in the special election, smart observers will be watching the margins canada goose jacket uk very closely. Because if a Republican only manages to win the district by a few points after Trump won it by 19, it could also be an indicator of which House Republicans could be in serious jeopardy in November. If Democrats can outperform their previous totals by double digits even in extremely red districts canada goose outlet store montreal then all those districts with much closer canada goose outlet store uk GOP margins of victory have to be seen as up for grabs. Canada Goose online

canada goose coats Again, there are no guarantees. There aren’t really even enough data points to draw firm statistical conclusions. But even with those caveats, all the signs so canada goose outlet authentic far are pointing to a big blue wave coming in November. One year from now, the Democratic resistance to Trump could move forward under the leadership of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, to put this another way. And hopefully Democrats will also be racking up a whole lot of state legislative districts, reversing their downward trend in the Obama era. Republicans are getting more worried about canada goose outlet toronto factory the prospects of a wave election drowning their chances, and they have every right to be. After all, if a Democrat can win by 11 points in a rural district that Trump carried by 17, canada goose outlet toronto then it’s pretty easy to canada goose outlet england see which way the wind is blowing canada goose coats.

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